International fertilizer prices continue to decline due to oversupply and lower global demand. For Argentine agriculture, the cost relief comes at the expense of local logistics and availability issues.
International fertilizer prices fell again last week, dragged down by global agricultural demand that is unable to sustain high prices amid a scenario of oversupply. For Argentine agriculture, the decline represents a respite in the costs of strategic inputs, although the local situation is uncertain due to logistics and availability issues.
Urea’s price
| Orig/Dest. | 4 sept (u$s/t) | 11 sept (u$s/t) | Var (u$s) | Var (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional (FOB)* | 444 | 417 | -27 | -6% |
| India (CFR) | 460 | 425 | -35 | -8% |
| China (FOB) | 440 | 405 | -35 | -8% |
| Báltic (FOB) | 416 | 405 | -11 | -3% |
| Egypt (FOB) | 468 | 400 | -68 | -15% |
| Middle East (FOB) | 425 | 405 | -20 | -5% |
| Nola EE.UU. (FOB st) | 407 | 405 | -2 | 0% |
| Brazil (CFR) | 451 | 425 | -26 | -6% |
| Argentina (CFR) | 475 | 460 | -15 | -3% |
*Average price China, Baltic, Egypt and Middle East.
In the latest auction in India, one of the world’s largest buyers, 2.03 million tons of granulated urea were awarded, well below expectations of 2.5 million. The price was US$80/ton lower than in the previous auction, freeing up supply for other destinations and driving the global decline.
The Chinese market, with rising production, joined in with aggressive bids before government export restrictions go into effect in October.
In Brazil, deals closed around US$425-435/ton CFR, about US$25 less than last week. In Argentina, the reference price was between US$460 and US$465/ton CFR for 20,000-ton operations, a US$15 weekly drop.
According to the consulting firm IF Ingeniería en Fertilizantes, the global downward trend affected the Argentine wholesale market, which began the week with falling prices. However, the lack of availability at the ports of Greater Rosario stemmed the decline, closing at between US$580 and US$590/ton after some operations below that level.
The consulting firm warns that normalization will only come with the arrival of new vessels in the coming days, while the high demand for clearance slots complicated logistics and generated discontent among producers. “This problem is common at this time of year, so it is key to plan ahead,” they noted.
The phosphate market was not left out. India once again set the trend by awarding volumes of DAP (diammonium phosphate) at US$803/ton CFR, weakening international benchmarks.
In Morocco, exports remain strong, but with limited quotas to Latin America and Asia. In Brazil, where the market is nearly paralyzed by high stocks, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) imports have fallen 17% so far this year.
In Argentina, MAP traded at US$775-790/ton CFR, down US$5 weekly. Excessive humidity in agricultural areas and a lack of interest in corn are also reducing effective demand.
Fertilizers on the decline: how the global correction impacts the Argentine agricultural sector
In the local wholesale market, MAP 11-52 fell between US$10-15 per ton, while other formulations fell between US$3 and US$5. The unfavorable input-output ratio compared to corn and soybeans discourages investment, replicating the decline already seen in fine crops.
MAP’s Price (Monoammonium Phosphate)
| Orig./Dest. | 4 sept (u$s/t) | 11 sept (u$s/t) | Var (u$s) | Var (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional (FOB)* | 761 | 762 | +1 | 0% |
| India (CFR) | 806 | 802 | -4 | 0% |
| China (FOB) | 754 | 755 | +2 | 0% |
| Morocco (FOB) | 772 | 781 | +9 | +1% |
| Báltic (FOB) | 713 | 711 | -2 | 0% |
| Tampa (FOB) | 742 | 738 | -4 | -1% |
| Brazil (CFR) | 731 | 727 | -4 | -1% |
| Argentina (CFR) | 790 | 785 | -5 | -1% |
*Average price China, Baltic, Egypt and Middle East.
The consulting firm warns that this weakness is part of a global trend, except in Asian markets like India, where government subsidies support demand and distort international prices.
The drop in fertilizer prices is mixed good news for Argentine agriculture: it reduces costs at a key planning moment, but the lack of availability, port logistics, and the fragile input-output relationship continue to hinder profitability. The global landscape—with India, China, and Brazil marking the field—forces Argentina to move quickly if it wants to maintain its competitiveness.
Source: AgroLatam
Yara firma un acuerdo de compraventa con ATOME
ATOME, a low-carbon fertilizer developer and the UK’s only international industrial scale low-carbon fertiliszer company, has announced the signing of the definitive minimum 10-year offtake agreement with Yara International ASA for the sale, by Atome, and purchase, by Yara, of the entire 260 000 tpy low-carbon fertilizer production, based on 100% renewable power, at the Villeta Project in Paraguay.
The agreement reflects the Heads of Terms entered into with Yara, as announced on 24 July 2024, to which investors are referred. The term of the agreement is 10 years with an option to extend. The term as well as the committed purchase nature for all of ATOME’s production underpins the long-term success and profitability of the Project, aligning all parties, underscoring the bankability of the project for lenders and validating ATOME’s business model.
Yara and ATOME will work together to maximise market potential and the premium value proposition of ATOME’s low-carbon product, benefitting from Yara’s extensive sales, marketing, and distribution network, combined with experience in relevant markets.
Ready and willing market for low-carbon fertilizers: Villeta is expected to produce low-carbon Calcium Ammonium Nitrate (CAN) fertilizer, made from green ammonia produced from 100% renewable baseload hydropower, at industrial scale, without reliance on subsidies or grants, and close to major demand centres, providing global food producers with much needed cost-effective solutions to decarbonise their supply chains. Situated at the heart of Mercosur, the world’s largest fertiliser import market, with the Argentinian and Brazilian market on its doorstep, Villeta will disrupt the world’s largest net food-exporting region’s heavy reliance on imported, fossil-fuel-based fertilisers – much of it still coming from Russia and China – helping to advance both regional climate and food security goals.
Approximately one-third of human-caused greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are linked to food production according to United Nations’ data. Today, fertilizer use and production is the source of more emissions than the shipping and aviation industries combined. ATOME’s low-carbon Calcium Ammonium Nitrate product will contribute to decarbonising the food sector from the bottom up, getting to the root of the food value chain’s emissions. ATOME’s fertilizer is both clean and promotes high crop yields – unlike conventional nitrogen fertilizers, such as urea, which have a heavy carbon footprint.
As a first-mover in marketing low-carbon fertilizer alternatives, Yara sells low-carbon fertilizer directly into the agricultural supply chains of the world’s largest food and beverage companies. The offtake agreement will see ATOME benefit from Yara’s expanding commercialisation of low-carbon products.
Next step to final investment decision (FID): The achievement in signing of the agreement represents the last commercial milestone in ATOME’s path to FID. This comes after the successful completion of a succession of other key commercial gating items, including the signing of the US$465 million fixed-price, lump-sum Engineering, Procurement and Construction contract with Casale. Following the announcement of Hy24 as the anchor equity investor, ATOME are now progressing the constitution of the equity club in parallel with the constitution of the senior lenders’ syndicate. FID and start of construction remains targeted for before the end of the year and it is anticipated that further announcements in this regard will be made in due course.
Terje Bakken, Director for Ammonia and Fertiliser Markets at ATOME, commented: “ATOME is pleased to sign this definitive and final offtake agreement with Yara. We know that making the switch to low-carbon fertilizer is one of the most effective ways to reduce food production emissions. The agreement with Yara is an important validation of our commercial model, underpinned by the market case for the world’s biggest food and beverage producers to urgently address agricultural emissions in their supply chains.
“ATOME is pleased to have established a strong and mutually beneficial relationship with Yara. We look forward to fostering our partnership and remain grateful for the hard work and trust of the Yara team.”
Chrystel Monthean, EVP Americas at Yara, added: “Yara’s ambition is to contribute to ‘growing a nature-positive food future’, profitably. Yara has for many years been working on this challenge with farmers, cooperatives, and distributors in our South American markets. With this local supply of fertilisers based on renewable energy, we will strengthen our portfolio which, in combination with our agronomical knowledge, will allow us to respond competitively to market demand.”
Source: World Fertilizer
ARGENTINA’S MAIN CROP OVERVIEW:
CORN: In the central region of the agricultural area, environmental conditions are highly favorable. Soil moisture profiles are optimal and even saturated in some cases, while temperatures are keeping pace with the work. This scenario has encouraged an early planting trend that could reach 52% of the total estimated corn yield, exceeding the average early planting rate of the last five campaigns (46%). To date, 3.8% of the 7.8 Mha projected for this campaign have been planted, with the greatest progress concentrated in north-central Santa Fe and Entre Ríos. In parallel, the 2024/25 corn campaign is considered complete, although several plots remain to be harvested in the central and southern parts of Buenos Aires province. This delay is due to the lack of soil affecting the entire region, preventing the entry of machinery. However, this situation would not compromise the production projection, which remains at 49 Mn.
SUNFLOWER: Sunflower planting recorded a week-on-week progress of 1.7 percentage points and already covers 24.4% of the projected 2.6 Mha area for the 2025/26 season. After a week of good weather conditions, planting progress is notable in the north-central part of Santa Fe, although excess water is still preventing the entry of machinery in some areas. At this time of year, planting slows due to progress in areas of lesser influence for the oilseed, awaiting the reactivation of work in the southern areas of the agricultural area. However, a year-on-year advance of 16.9 percentage points remains, and 6.4 percentage points compared to the last five years.
WHEAT: Wheat crop conditions remain in Normal/Excellent condition across 97.5% of the crop area. After a week without rain and mild temperatures, the proportion of excess water surface decreased by 17.1 percentage points. Regarding phenology, 38.8% of the grain is already in the process of stem formation, with the most advanced plots concentrated in the north of the country. While the area under restrictive moisture conditions exceeds 60%, nationally it affects less than 5% of the total. Meanwhile, in the remaining areas, the favorable weather conditions of the last week have resulted in a 7.5 percentage point increase in the wheat area in Good/Excellent condition, maintaining high production expectations for this campaign.
Source: Buenos Aires Grain Stock
